Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Bob McKenzie, Doctor Draft

Now that I think about it, maybe the title of Dr. Draft should belong to me, since that's as far as my blog posts ever go!... at least Spezza got a big kick out of it.

Anyway, our friend at TSN, Bob McKenzie, came out with this year's first piece of 2011 Entry Draft coverage. I'm so excited!

"Taylor versus Tyler" was a catchy slogan to set up last season's race between Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin for first overall in the National Hockey League entry draft.

Good luck trying to come up with a snappy label for the 2011 draft.

From my friends at the church, "It should be Adam and Eve, not Adam and Sean!"

"You would take Couturier? That would be Larsson-y!" Larceny! Get it!?

I see what he's getting at, but my first concern with the 2011 entry draft is not going to be how to refer to the top prospects in a catchy way. Let's hear some relevant details!

This year's battle for No. 1 could not be more wide open, shaping up at the starting line as at least a three-man race. In fact, for the first time ever, TSN's pre-season ranking of the Top 10 NHL Prospects has produced a dead heat at No. 1 overall.

Drummondville centre Sean Couturier and Swedish blueliner Adam Larsson finished with identical results in the annual survey of 10 NHL scouts by TSN. Remarkably, they each had four first-place votes, three seconds and two thirds. The only other prospect to get top-dog consideration was Red Deer centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who was No. 1 on the other two ballots.

It's the first year in quite some time when there hasn't been a consensus No. 1 to start the season.

What if there were four players shaping up at the starting line? Wouldn't that be a more wide open race? What about ten? No? Three is as wide as it can be? I understand. What irks me is how he states that it couldn't be more wide open, yet the pre-season rankings produced a dead lock between two players, with any other solid consideration going towards only one other player. It would be interesting if, say, ten players each received a first, second, and third place vote, rather than three (essentially two) players garnering all of the attention. SO MANY OPTIONS!

"All three guys have something special," one scout said. "Couturier is a big, skilled centre, Larsson is a total package defenceman and Nugent-Hopkins is a tremendous offensive talent with elite skill. It's going to be the most interesting race for No. 1 we've seen in a long time."

I don't know how to say this any more vividly, but it's September, morons. Rankings are going to change. Here are the preseason rankings from last year's draft class. There was definitely some movement involved here. Most notably:

-John McFarland, ranked number 5, was drafted 33rd overall.

-Stanislav Galiev, ranked number 11, was drafted 86th overall.

-Jordan Weal, ranked number 13, was drafted 70th overall.

-Teemu Pulkkinen, ranked number 19, was drafted 111th overall.

-Tom Kühnhackl, ranked number 27, was drafted 110th overall.

Note: Kirill Kabanov was drafted 65th overall after being the top-ranked prospect during the pre-season. This is because of his work-ethic (or lack thereof) and erratic behavior. If it weren't for these issues, it is cited that he could have been a first round draft pick, more specifically a top-ten pick.

To go along with these players, there were players drafted in the top ten that were excluded from these preseason rankings, including Dylan McIlrath (10th overall), Nino Niederreiter (5th), and Ryan Johansen (4th!). Although rankings should not be viewed as the ultimate authority, it is important to note that while these three players (Couturier, Larsson, Ted Nugent-Hopkins) are the top of the class thus far, all it takes is a one strong (albeit, very strong) season to bring another prospect into the mix.

I'm going to do some skipping around. Forgive me.

Not surprisingly, with his size, skill and ability to play without the puck, Couturier is said to have some Staal-like qualities -- Eric or Jordan, take your pick.

Well, if he has tremendous offensive ability and strong defensive tendencies, wouldn't that encompass both Staal-brothers mentioned? Or are you saying that whoever is fortunate enough to draft him will have to choose between his offensive or defensive abilities? From the sound of it, this kid could become more prolific than any of the Staal brothers have the potential for.

Here's some golden script about Larsson:

Larsson is a mobile, skilled and physical defenceman who has a terrific all-around game and has already played a full season in the Swedish Elite League against men.

Does that mean he has MENERGY!?!?!?!?!? This is kind of a redundant statement. I think it's safe to assume that the SEL is a men's league. SEL Junior and Junior 2 exist for a reason.

Larsson obviously isn't as tall as Hedman but he's still 6-2 or 6-3, very thick and his game has more natural bite to it than Hedman. He's also better offensvie [sic] than Hedman, he's got a cannon of a shot. He has the ability to control the pace of the game when he's out there.

Great use of counter-points, Kenzie! Not only does Larsson come in a more convenient size (he fits in your car, refrigerator, AND your closet!) than the Hedman model, he also comes with more natural bite! Is he made with real sugar, rather than high fructose corn syrup which is great in moderation? I sure hope so, since whoever drafts this organic stud will likely use him excessively.

How about some info on the other guy?

Nugent-Hopkins is said to be no more than 6 feet tall, but he's extremely thin and physically immature compared to the other two elite prospects, but he's considered an electrifying offensive talent who is able to bob and weave through heavy traffic and rarely, if ever, get hit directly.

Hm, he sounds like he could be a fantastic player if he develops a bit more.

Scouts say he's as good a playmaker as he is a goal scorer and while some say he has similar offensive capabilities as Chicago star Pat Kane, others rave about his shot and quick release, which may be reminiscent of another Vancouver area product, future Hall of Famer Joe Sakic.

Hm, he sounds like he has some offensive ability and a lot of upside. He looks good so far!

Nugent-Hopkins scored the only goal for Canada against the United States at the gold-medal game of the Ivan Hlinka Memorial Under-18 tournament in August.

Sold! Why wasn't this mentioned in the title!? Just imagine if a team like Florida got a hold of this kid: he could have 50 goals in his first season, since you'd know damn well that any time Florida loses 2-1, 4-1, or 8-1 (in the words of Joe, "Vamos, Clemmensen!"), he would be the hero to get his team on the board.

Beyond the top three, this year's draft race continues to be ridiculously wide open. Only one other prospect -- Swedish forward Gabriel Landeskog of the Kitchener Rangers -- got votes from all 10 scouts, but Landeskog still ended up in a dead heat for fourth place in voting points, with Saginaw Spirit forward Brandon Saad, a Pittsburgh area native who played for the U.S. national team development program last season. Saad was on nine of 10 ballots. Just as there was some separation between the Big Three and Landeskog/Saad, there appears to be a discernible gap between those two and the rest of the field. Landeskog and Saad had 53 voting points apiece, the next prospect had 28.

So even fourth place in voting was shared!? I can't get over how wide open this is! Nothing or no one has been this wide open since Elisha Cuthbert in 2008 (apparently Vogue Avery has some girth, and we already know that Phaneuf has a "rocket").

Skipping around, again.

Unbelievably, 27 prospects received at least one vote in the survey, where scouts were asked to rank their top 10 pre-season prospects and two honorable mentions. That is, by far, the most prospects who have received top 10 consideration in the pre-season Top 10 survey.

This could mean a few things. While it could represent a deep draft class, it could also represent a group of voters that is fairly undecided on who has potential to become a top draft choice and more significantly, NHL-caliber talent. While it's great to see that McKenzie is optimistic about the possibilites that arise in a wide-ranged draft ranking, it's far too early to consider voting trends outside of the top five as relevant. Get back to me in December... or April, or May, or mid-June, sweet lips.

All donations to this blog post will go towards fresh board paint at Young Patriots Park.

No comments:

Post a Comment