Showing posts with label sure bets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sure bets. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

If April is for fools, this month will never end.

What is it about the playoffs anyway?

We've made so much progress in recent years when it comes to logic and reasoning in sports analysis. In spite of all the corny names, the NHL version of sabermetrics has forced its way into relevancy. It's becoming increasingly rare to hear about goalie wins and team chemistry. High shot percentages are chalked up to small sample size instead of some magical repeatable skill or an ability to be clutch when it really matters. The days of rostering goons to "protect" the star players are almost completely behind us. Isn't it wonderful? I like to think we had something to do with that. You're welcome, loyal Tyutinites(We've gained somewhat of a cult following over the years. They like to be referred to as Tyutinites. I have no idea why. Why DO we call you guys Tyutinites, anyway?).

And then, come playoff time, everything gets thrown out the window.


Like spoiled milk, moldy cheese and that Russian dressing that’s been on the fridge door since the Bush administration, Ken Hitchcock has an expiration date. 

Why does it have to be spoiled and moldy to have an expiration date? The fresh bottle of ketchup in your fridge expires too, ya know. That unopened bottle of Billy's Hit it a TON barbecue sauce on the counter? Pretty sure that'll expire before too much longer. And I know there's a dill pickle somewhere in Woodhaven just waiting to be eaten.

His first head-coaching job in the NHL remains his longest tenured one: Seven years with the Dallas Stars, 503 games, with a Stanley Cup and two Western Conference titles.
Then came four years and 254 games with the Philadelphia Flyers before being fired in 2006. Then came four years and 284 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets before parting ways in 2010.
You've found a pattern! He'll coach St. Louis for three more years and they'll win a cup? Tyler! I have great news!

He’s coached the St. Louis Blues for four seasons and 281 games.
Time’s up.
Oh. Nevermind, Tyler. Life sucks.

Look, there’s no denying the effect Hitchcock had on this franchise. His systematic structure produced four straight playoff years – Year 1 had him taking over for Davis Payne after 13 games – with the Blues twice finishing first and twice finishing second.

So that means it's time to get rid of him? You have a weird way of proving a point.

But their six-game bow to the Minnesota Wild is the third straight season that they’re out on their asses in the first round. This year’s loss came at the expense of the best roster, on paper, that GM Doug Armstrong has given his coach.

Oh boy. OK, so here's the thing. It's hard to win in the playoffs. Because you're no longer playing Edmonton and Buffalo. There aren't any cupcake first round match-ups anymore. Every team that qualifies for the playoffs is a good team. Hell...some of the teams that don't qualify are good. Boston, Los Angeles, San Jose? Pretty decent hockey teams. Dallas scored the 2nd most goals in the NHL this year, and they're watching hockey on TV.

In 2012, St. Louis lost to Los Angeles. Ya know, the team that smoked everybody on their way to a Stanley Cup. I'm aware, they were an 8 seed, but it's not like they were undeserving.

In 2013, St. Louis lost to Los Angeles. Once again, can you really blame them for that?

In 2014, St. Louis lost to Chicago. Hey, look. Chicago was pretty good that year.

There's a reason Chicago and Los Angeles have dominated the league the last few years. They're both really awesome teams.

And it wasn’t against the Kings or the Blackhawks. It was against a team they should have beaten.

I'll admit that Minnesota isn't Chicago or LA, and it's possible St. Louis was the favourite to win that series, but you have to realize how unbelievable Minnesota was in the 2nd half of the season. They acquired Devan Dubnyk on January 14th. At that time, they were 18-19-5, nine points out of the 2nd wild card spot. The next 40 games resulted in a 28-9-3 record with a +44 goal differential. That wasn't a hot week. That was half the season.

These aren't your 2014-15 Ottawa Senators. This team was projected to be good all year. Despite just a 7-7 record, NHL.com still had them as the 7th best team in the league, citing bad luck as the only thing holding them back. Well, their bad luck may have continued longer than expected, but boy did it turn around. These things tend to sort themselves out over the course of a full season(Ottawa be damned). That's why people talk about small sample sizes. I thought we were past this?

I'm not saying they're a .735 hockey team, but they certainly weren't a .488 team either. They're probably about halfway between those two figures. Ya know...a pretty good team. St. Louis lost to a pretty good team.

Did you watch the Blues vs. Wild series? Was there anything you saw that would indicate they’re jumping in front of a bullet for their coach?

Is that what you think happened? You think they purposely lost because they wanted to make their coach look bad? You don't think players have enough pride to try their hardest whether they like their coach or not? The Kings did. Twice. There's no way any of those guys like their coach. I mean, look at that guy.

Especially when you consider not a single player on the Blues' playoff roster has ever won a cup before. They knew they had a good team. They knew they had a legitimate shot at a cup run. But yeah, you're probably right. They deliberately booted the entire season in six games so their coach would get fired. Weird how they still won two of them.

The Blues have two players at the heart of their lineup who have been there for years – David Backes and T.J. Oshie. They’re beloved by fans. They’re leaders on the team. They’re vital members of the community. They’re really, really good guys.
But their playoff numbers, and lack success(sic), could be as scrutinized as those of their coach.
Backes had one goal and one assist against the Wild, giving him two goals and four assists in his last 16 playoff games. Oshie … well, let us know when he shows up for the first round.
That seems weird. I wonder what changed? Certainly they didn't just forget how to play hockey, right? So something must be different. Something that isn't just bad luck and random variation, because the only cure for bad luck is time and patience. The only thing I can think would be a lack of clutch ability, right? Can't get it done when it really matters, when all eyes are on you? That must be what you're getting at, because I can't think of anything else. But wait. Don't you remember the 2014 Olympics? Oshie sure made a name for himself there, as you yourself even pointed out. No bigger event, I'd say, than when the whole fucking world is watching, as you find yourself repeatedly locked in a one on one skills competition against the goalie of the host nation. Sure seemed pretty cool and calm under that pressure.

Maybe Oshie's 9.4% playoff shot percentage has something to do with it. Ya know, since his worst season has him shooting at a 10.1% clip, and his career is at 11.8%. And as for Backes? His 8.5% playoff shot percentage is hardly in line with his 12.5% career percentage.

If you believe the core is the problem, then you take a melon baller and scoop out these two this summer. They both have enormous value. Maybe it’s just not going to happen in St. Louis.
Or maybe it will, with a new voice behind the bench.
Or, maybe it will with the same coach! Who knows?

The idea of “message fatigue” is a very valid thing in the NHL. How many times have you seen a gruff coach replaced by a players’ guy, or vice versa?

Yes, but how often does it work? My guess is about half the time. For every fairy tale ending(the Kings with Sutter, the Penguins with Bylsma, the Blackhawks with Quenneville) there's a disaster(the Canucks with Tortorella, the Capitals with Hunter, the Capitals with Oates). Just because this is something teams often do doesn't make it a cure-all. And did you notice anything about those teams? They're all young, exciting teams that were on the cusp of being great. You can say a coaching change was the answer, I'll just say it was an inevitability, and we can agree to disagree.

Look, it’s not an easy decision to move off Hitchcock. Ask the Penguins what it’s like to jettison a successful coach for the sin of playoff underachievement.

See? You already knew that. Why did you write this article?

The funny thing about that is Bylsma got canned for not having success in the playoffs, a few years after he got praised for his success in the playoffs. Message fatigue? Maybe. Luck? Definitely. There are sixteen teams in the playoffs every year. All things equal, that means each playoff team has a 6.25% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. All things aren't equal, I understand, but they're not different enough to drastically sway odds in one direction or another. This is just the reality of things. We live in an era of parity. We wanted this. This is the reason we implemented a salary cap. Teams don't just go through the playoffs wiping people away year after year anymore.

Hitchcock has no room to grow. This is the ceiling for himself and the Blues. Jake Allen could have been Jacques Plante in this series and it doesn’t change the fact that, yet again, this group under Hitchcock scored four goals in their four losses.

I don't know if you understand this, but that's how hockey works. Teams scored 2.73 goals per game this year. For every winner there's a loser. If teams are averaging under three goals per game it stands to reason that the losing team of most games didn't have a lot of goals.

Take out the six-goal explosion in Game 4, and the Blues scored eight goals in five games.

Yeah, but take out the anemic one goal performances, and the Blues scored ten goals in two games. Coach Yeo had no room to grow in those games! Dubnyk could have been Jacques Plante and it didn't change the fact that Minnesota only scored two goals in their two losses.

You can't just remove data from an already small sample just to prove a point. Otherwise you end up sounding like an idiot like I just did. St. Louis scored 14 goals in six playoff games, 2.33 goals per game. Minnesota's elite shot prevention style of play held opponents to 2.45 goals per game this season. Not too far off, really.

So once again, it’s goaltending and a lack of goal scoring. Same crap, different year, and something’s gotta change.
We imagine it’ll be behind the bench before it’s anything substantial from the roster Armstrong’s built.
Look. I know it's a little late for a disclaimer, but I'm just gonna throw it out there. I don't know things. I'm just a dude who watches a lot of hockey. I read about it occasionally and I do my best to analyze what I learn. I have no idea what goes on inside a locker room. I don't know what happens during practices and in film rooms. These things are kept from us. All of us. One of the biggest things we've yet to accurately analyze are the effects of coaching. But don't you think players at the NHL level have had enough coaching? They've had so many different coaches over their many years through the ranks, there can't really be too much more for them to learn. There aren't any brand new systems nobody else has thought about. I just see it as such a cop out to switch coaches when things don't go as planned. People are so quick to overreact, so in order to appease the fans they show the coach the door. Problem solved, apparently.

Hitchcock will be fine. The Maple Leafs, Sharks and Flyers are three teams that might throw money at him if he's available. And why not: The next expiration date is in 2019...

Cute. But what was that you were just saying about same crap, different year?

Monday, December 1, 2014

Looking forward to watching some All-Stars? Montreal, Riga, Chicago, and Pittsburgh are.


Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2015 NHL all star team! The Chicago Blackhawks/Montreal Canadiens/Pittsburgh Penguins!

Now, your starting lineup, based on leading votes per position in each conference.

In the Western Conference:

Starting Goaltender, from the Chicago Blackhawks, Corey Crawford!
At Defence, from the Chicago Blackhawks, Duncan Keith! And from the Chicago Blackhawks, Brent Seabrook!
At Centre, from the Chicago Blackhawks, Jonathan Toews!
At Left Wing, from the Chicago Blackhawks, Patrick Sharp!
And starting at Right Wing, from the Chicago Blackhawks, Patrick Kane!

Now, for the Eastern Conference:

Starting goaltender, from the Montreal Canadiens, Carey Price!
On Defence, from the Montreal Canadiens, P.K. Subban! And from the Pittsburgh Penguins, Kris Letang!
At Centre, from the Pittsburgh Penguins, Sidney Crosby!
Starting Left Wing, best player in the NHL, most certainly better than Nicklas Backstrom...Zemgus Girgensons!
And starting Right Wing, from the Pittsburgh Penguins, Evgeni Malkin!

I wonder who's going to win the Phil Kessel award at this year's mid-winter classic?

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Better even later than ever later than that.

Here's the Feastern half of my incredibly accurate, absolutely plausible 53/82nds season predictions.

WASHINGTON Currently 1st Will finish2nd and 4th

Officials become confused after seeing Washington play Pittsburgh for the 16th time on NBC or Vs. and start placing Washington in the Atlantic division. After realizing 8 eastern teams don't deserve to make the playoffs, Washington is awarded the Atlantic division and the 4 seed for placing 2nd in their own division (SEE: ATLANTA). Also, Nicklas Backstrom looks like a woman.

NEW JERSEY Currently 2nd Will finish11th

Martin Brodeur is the greatest goaltender of all time. His career in no way reflects the style or strength of teams past. It was all him. New Jersey will lose the rest of their games 0 to (-1) because Brodeur has never let in a goal in his NHL career he is the best of all time he's a winner he is the all time winner of all time forever.

BUFFALO! Currently 3rd Will finishSABRES!

Thanks to a BUFFALO! Hall-of-Fame 2nd half BUFFALO! from leading SABRES! scorer LaFountain and best-defenseman-BUFFALO!-in-league efforts SABRES! from Craig "The Frog" Rivit, SABRES! BUFFALO! BUFFALO! SABRES! SABRES!......SABRES!

SABRES!

PITTSBURGH Currently 4th Will finish10th

Incredibly loud 5 am sirens from nearby Monroeville will make Sidney Crosby's face retarded after the game. Malkin is a suckasaurus. I hope Guerin's face explodes. Now under the pressure of being a big-time-mega-awesome-playoff goaltender SABRES! Marc-Andre Fleury will fold and suck for once, twice, three times a lady.

OTTAWA Currently (some-fucking-how) 5th Will finish 14th

With a roster chock full of perennial all-star talent such as Jonathan Cheechoo, Chris Neil, Chris Kelly, Ryan Shannon, Chris Campoli, Mike Fisher, Terry Carkner, Shean Donovan, Nick Foligno, Filip Kuba, Peter Regin, and Anton Volchenkov the hockey world will be turned upside down as Ottawa somehow tumbles to the 14 seed. Despite M.SABRES!Brodeur, the best all-time goalie, Ottawa's descent will shock and surprise the hockey world. The media will blame Ray Emery.

PHILDELPHIA Currently 6th Will finish9th
Philadelphia will have a great run going up until the last week of the season, when their gentlemanly play costs them a few wins. After Dan "Frolick Through the Tulips" Carcillo and Ian "Save the Whales" Laperriere are humming a sonnet during a team timeout, they miss Peter "It's pronounced Kovalchook" Laviolette's play call, leading to a key goal in a tough loss. When Arron Asham, Chris Pronger, and Riley Cote hold hands and play ring-around-the-goal-mouth during an opposing power play, (the penalty of course was on Scott Hartnell for delay of game when he tried to free a hockey puck back into the wild) it leads to a crushing OT loss to the Rangers on the last play of the season.

FLORIDA Currently 7th Will finish 7th

During a game in April against SABRES! Boston, with a potential playoff spot on the line, defenseman Keith Ballard gets really pissed off and and starts helicoptering down the middle of the ice. As Bruins clear the way, Cory Stillman tosses a beautiful saucer pass to the front of the net that Ballard chops in for a goal. Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas gets surprisingly angered that he let in a goal and starts grabbing things and breaking them over his knee including (but not limited to): his goal stick, the goal posts, the blue line, David Booth's brains, SABRES!, and Tuukka Rask.

ATLANTA Currently 8th Will finish 1st

When I wake up tomorrow morning, Ilya Kovalchuk will've signed a multi-year deal to stay in Atlanta. Rich Peverley will continue to be amazing and Maxim Afinogenov will hang out with me and play some tennis. Bored with how much better they are than everyone else, Enstrom will start trying back hand one timers from the point on power plays and Todd White will start blindfolding himself during the shootout, just to make it a challenge.

NY RANGERS Currently 9th Will finish 12th

With Lundqvist, Gaborik and Avery posing for mens magazines, it's up to young Chad Deuxneuf to lead the team to the playoffs. His post-save celebrations will lead to several league-sanctioned fines, unsportsmanlike conducts, and delay-of-game penalties causing many short-handed situations. John Tortorella will take up swimming due to his budding business and his love of water.

MONTREAL Currently 10th Will finish 13th

Ending the 100th year anniversary of Lecavalier-to-Montreal trade rumo(u)rs, the Habs finally land him in a trade in exchange for the Russian Mob and a few scandalous party photos. With these potential distractions out of the way, it would appear clear that the door is wide open for a trip back to the post season. However, as the Habs climb into the 8th spot with a month left, fans riot in celebration of another potential trip to the postseason; something incredibly rare in Montreal's long, losing history. The riots eventually end when the Centre Bell is set on fire and implodes before the season is over.

BOSTON Currently 11th Will finish 8th
Despite the path of destruction left by Tim Thomas in an April 1st game against Florida, the team makes good ol' Irish boy and regularly sized person Zden O'Chara stand in front of the net and act as a goalie. As the season ends, the team is the 9 seed, however Satan threatens to make all the SABRES! teams from the US (or its affiliated territories such as but not limited to Puerto Rico.) move to Canada. The power of Satan compels him, and Bettman grants Boston the 8 seed.

TAMPA BAY Currently 12th Will finish 6th
With perennial #1 fantasy pick Alex Tanguay, this team can do no SABRES! wrong. The properly named Mike Goalie (he plays goalie) will be strong enough down the stretch against the absolutely stiffest competition in the league (Southeast Division). And of course, Ohlund is english for Ohlund, but Mattias is english for 0 goals this year.

NY ISLANDERS Currently 13th Will finish 15th
Upon reading the newest issue of USA Today, affluent gambler (he's great at Roulette) David Williard thinks he has won a small wager with cross-casino rival (breeds and trains electronic horses) Rjntk Rjnsky when he sees the Islanders in the 15 seed, surely that must be last in the conference, mus'n't?

CAROLINA Currently 14th Will finish 5th

Despite being in the world's toughest division, the great team that is Carolina will find a way into the playoffs again. With such a star-studded roster, it's a wonder this team ever misses. The White Sox of the NHL only miss due to piss-poor luck and terrible calls from referees. This year they might just go all the way. They've always got the talent.

TORONTO Currently 15th Will finish: not Phil Kessel
Phil Kessel always turned in his math homework incompleted. Phil Kessel can never tell you how the movie ends. Phil Kessel has never had an orgasm. Phil Kessel, when invited over for Thanksgiving dinner, unbuckled his belt, leaned back and released a long sigh with a plate half full of food. When asked which country do you wish you were from, Phil replied, "Not Finland." Phil has 11 songs half written and half recorded. The Leaves will only play 81 games this season, voiding their season and making them the SABRES! 16 seed. PAY UP, BITCH.